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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new initiative from Washington follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, continue.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.

Current Realities

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.