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A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion

The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Discussions range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the other's positions."

Request for Wider Debate

Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."